Methodology
What each word on OilBrief means, where the inputs come from, and how calls are scored.
Threat levels
Set by MilInsights' ARGUS service for each oil route. OilBrief never changes them.
- Critical
- Hostile action under way or expected within days.
- High
- Capability and intent both evidenced; action plausible within the window.
- Elevated
- Indicators trending toward action, but intent or capability not yet evidenced.
- Guarded
- Activity consistent with routine posture.
- Low
- No credible indicators of hostile action in the window.
Ratings
Every rating is relative to the S&P 500 (SPY) over the signal's horizon, not an absolute price call.
- Buy
- Expected to beat the S&P 500 by a wide margin over the horizon.
- Overweight
- Expected to beat the S&P 500.
- Hold
- Expected to track the S&P 500 within 2 percentage points.
- Underweight
- Expected to lag the S&P 500.
- Sell
- Expected to lag the S&P 500 by a wide margin.
Confidence
Each call carries one word, never a percentage: Confirmed (multiple independent, reliable sources), Probable (good sourcing, a plausible alternative remains), Possible (credible but limited), or Speculative (inference beyond the evidence).
Scoring
When the horizon ends, we take the asset's closing price and the S&P 500's on the first session on or after that date. The call is right when the asset's excess return has the sign the rating predicted; a Hold is right when the excess return stays within 2 points either way. Results are published whether right or wrong.
Where the data comes from
- Threat assessments: MilInsights ARGUS, public-source assessments only. OilBrief refuses any assessment that is not marked public-source, and uses no government, customer or partner data.
- Prices: daily closing prices from a market data provider, filtered to dates on or before the assessment, so no call uses information from after it was made.
- Route flows: million barrels a day of crude and products from the US Energy Information Administration's chokepoint data, with the period shown next to each figure.
- Assets: a fixed list of liquid oil, products, tanker and energy funds per route. OilBrief does not rate individual companies.
What OilBrief is not
The daily brief and the barrels-at-risk figure describe exposure, not lost supply: a route rated High can keep flowing. OilBrief is impersonal research published identically to every subscriber. It is not investment advice, it does not consider your circumstances, and it does not place trades. Funds that track commodities can lose value from roll costs even when the commodity rises. Past results do not predict future results.